With every major event I always throw some coin down on a 3 or 4 fight parlay. Since MMA betting is still basically in its infancy there are usually a lot of betting lines to be exploited. Usually there is an underdog or two that really shouldn’t be, like Cain Velasquez is an underdog to Lesnar right now and I would bet the house on Velasquez, but this card is all about the favorites.
Anderson Silva at -400 vs. Chael Sonnen
Sonnen has launched a somewhat ridiculous, but somewhat savvy verbal assault on Anderson Silva and because of this he has convinced many fans that he can pull off the upset. Really though it’s not a very likely scenario as Sonnen’s whole gameplan is to get take downs and play top control. Silva’s guard is good enough to tap the very submittable Sonnen and on the feet it is a complete wash. Sonnen can certainly take Anderson down, but avoiding sweeps and submissions, plus avoiding the huge striking disadvantage will be tough to say the least. In my opinion this fight will look similar to the Henderson fight with Silva eventually hurting him on the feet and finishing him on the mat. This line really should be more like -600 for Silva. Every round starts standing and Silva only needs that amount time to take advantage.
Junior Dos Santos at -350 vs. Roy Nelson
Junior Dos Santos has the best pure boxing technique of any heavyweight in the world. Nelson’s likes to throw one big right hand and Dos Santo’s will smoke him with counter punches. Nelson will want to play top control and go for that crucifix position. While Nelson’s top game is solid, it’s not spectacular and Dos Santos is athletic enough to get the fight back standing if he does end up on bottom. Dos Santos will pepper Nelson from the outside and in the clinch he has a nasty uppercut to meet Nelson’s chin. Nelson is hard to finish so I can see the decision victory for Dos Santos.
Ricardo Almeida at -175 vs. Matt Hughes
My favorite line on the whole card so if your a single fight betting man, then jump on this. Hughes really doesn’t have much to offer Almeida. I think Almeida can submit Hughes as his submission grappling is fantastic and his take downs come in barrages that Hughes will have trouble stopping. Hughes can take Almeida down as well, but doesn’t have much to offer besides just playing the position game. It’s very possible that this will be an ugly decision, but I think Almeida can find a submission early.
Ben Saunders at -220 vs. Dennis Hallman
Hallman has a decent shot and Saunders defensive wrestling is not very good. Saunders had all kinds of problems from bottom position against Jon Fitch and Mike Swick, well Hallman is not Fitch or Swick. Hallman’s wrestling is not good enough to mirror the style problems that Fitch and Swick gave Saunders. Saunders will keep this on the feet long enough to use his ridiculous
reach advantage and muay thai clinch game to eventually finish Hallman.
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